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New Yorkers will discover who will be their new city leader this election day, in a race that will determine who governs and protects the country's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to send military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the path that the party, floundering in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with voters' anger at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a DSA gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd